Toll Modelling

Nix was Lead Modeller and project manager responsible to develop the Pivot Point Model using a spreadsheet. As part of the commission, he analysed broad ranges of data (e.g. economic and traffic volumes) to determine the relationship between historical macroeconomic indicators i.e. Household disposable income, ConsumerPrice Index and Gross Region Product and toll users using regression analysis where data was available. He determined asset capacity using Highway Capacity Manual 2010. He utilised the strategic transport model to identify infrastructure catchment area. He developed the approach that replicate the peak spreading effect and successfully incorporated into the spreadsheet model. He mitigated the uncertainty of the forecast by using Monte Carlo analysis. He presented the modelling results to the lending committee. He successfully developed a spreadsheet model that takes account of various traffic drivers within a tight timeframe.

Nix successfully developed the toll model methodology for BNE to estimate toll patronage based on a logit choice function. He was responsible for technical development, python scripting, calibrated the model.

Nix was a lead modeller responsible for the recalibration and operation of the WRTM model. He conducted a thorough investigation of WRTM and identified several model parameters that potentially improve the base validation of the model. Over the last two years, he had successfully conducted more than 1,500 model runs.